Why Alabama Republicans are 'all in' on pro-President Trump campaigning ahead of runoffs

President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a rally at AMSOIL Arena in Duluth, Minn., Wednesday, June 20, 2018. The president's net favorable support is at its highest in Alabama than any other state, recent polling shows. The Republican campaigns ahead of the July 17, 2018, runoff elections have focused heavily on Trump approval. (AP Photo)

In the lieutenant governor race, a new Twinkle Cavanaugh radio spot accuses Republican rival Will Ainsworth of trying to derail Donald Trump's presidential candidacy back in 2016.

In the attorney general race, the two GOP candidates are squabbling over who's the top Trump enthusiast.

In the 2nd District House race, incumbent Martha Roby battles a backlash against her disavowal of Trump following the 2016 release of the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape.

Republican candidates are engaging in fierce combat ahead of the July 17 runoffs, and affection for the president is the main theme.

None of it surprises Wayne Flynt, a professor emeritus at Auburn University and one of the state's best-known historians. He said, "Polling data routinely indicates that 'Bama is either the most conservative state in America or in the Top 5."

Alabama, according to recent analyses, is the state where Trump enjoys his highest favorability.

The president's net approval rating has fallen in all 50 states since his inauguration - a common occurrence for a president ahead of a midterm election. The Alabama decline is a small one, however. According to Morning Consult, Trump's net approval rating here is down 6 points since January 2017. That's tied with Louisiana as the least amount of slippage.

"Trump is more popular in Alabama than any other state and his popularity has fallen less in Alabama than in any other state," said Richard Fording, a political science professor at the University of Alabama, referring to the Morning Consult report and a subsequent analysis on the website, FiveThirtyEight.com.

"That's pretty amazing given the fact that one in four people in this state are African-American," Fording said. "This certainly suggests that the 2018 election candidates are doing the smart thing by trying to align themselves with Trump."

Said Gary Nordlinger, a professor of political management at George Washington University who was a frequent commenter during last year's special Senate election in Alabama: "The safest thing in Alabama is to be very pro-Trump."

Alabama is one of 10 states where Trump's favorability numbers are closest to where they were in January 2017. Five of those states are in the Deep South.

As the FiveThirtyEight analysis showed, these states are considered fairly "inelastic," meaning they have very few swing voters, and large black populations that overwhelmingly vote Democratic and white populations that mostly vote Republican.

Interestingly, Trump's popularity in Alabama ranks ahead of the four states that supported the president with a larger percentage of the vote during the 2016 election: Oklahoma, West Virginia, North Dakota and Wyoming.

Trump won 62.9 percent in Alabama to Democrat Hillary Clinton's 34.6 percent, the widest margin of victory in a presidential race since Richard Nixon in 1972.

Wyoming gave Trump earned his biggest support in 2016 with 70.1 percent of the vote. There, the president's approval has dropped 12 points since January 2017.

Said Terry Lathan, chairwoman of the Alabama GOP:  "I'm not surprised that Alabama is the state with the highest approval ratings for President Trump. We are a very conservative 'red' state and that shows in the deep Republican voter base."

She pointed out that Republicans occupy all of Alabama's top tier of state offices, and that the party holds supermajority status in the Legislature.

Lathan said, "This is a simple message on conservative policy. Alabamians clearly reject liberal Democrats beliefs. The Democrat Party's strong insistence that the government knows better and is the solution to everything is rejected in our state and across America. President Trump is the messenger on the differences as well as highlighting our plans."

'All in'

But to some political observers, the unwavering support of the president is underscored in further polling that shows the hyper-polarized realities of the American electorate.

A Pew Research Center analysis, released Wednesday, found that attitudes about the president are divided deeply along partisan and ideological lines.

Trump retains overwhelming support from Republicans and Republican leaners (79 percent approval), especially conservative Republicans (84 percent). Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, 86 percent disapprove of the president's job performance, including 93 percent of liberal Democrats.

Among religious groups, 74 percent of white evangelical Protestants say Trump has a great deal or fair amount of respect for people like them, as do 54 percent of white mainline Protestants.

Alabama, according to a 2016 Pew Research poll, was labeled at No. 1 in the number of residents viewing themselves as "highly religious." And most church-going white voters identify with the Republican Party.

By contrast, Pew's most recent survey showed that just 18 percent of Democrats, 18 percent of blacks, 31 percent of Hispanics, and 40 percent of women say the president has a great deal or fair amount of respect for people like them.

Fording, the Alabama professor, said the deepened polarized views about the president represent "tribalism in its most damaging form" that has spilled out into the Alabama contests.

"Martha Roby has actually been a supporter of President Trump's agenda, but that is not all that important to many voters these days," said Fording, before Trump endorsed Roby's candidacy last week in a move that may temper some of the backlash against her. "You have to be 'all in' and never criticize your party's president. While this is something that has been going on for several years now and on both sides of the political spectrum, it has really intensified on the right among Donald Trump's supporters."

Pew's polling backs this up. A majority of Republicans (52 percent) nationally view their midterm vote as a vote for Trump, which is higher than the shares of Democrats who said this about President Barack Obama in 2010 (43 percent) and 2014 (35 percent), or the share of Republicans who saw their vote as being "for" President George W. Bush in 2006 (33 percent).

"With Trump, the associate/distance dynamic is intensified," said Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, referring to midterm candidates who are utilizing Trump in campaign advertisements.

"What we've seen with Trump is that he rewards those who are loyal to him and punishes those who aren't," Hagle said, pointing to South Carolina Republican Rep. Mark Sandford, who lost his primary earlier this month after Trump blasted him on Twitter.

"That provides an additional incentive for a candidate to align him or herself with Trump in a campaign, particularly if it's an area where Trump's support is strong," Hagle said.

'A good job'

In Alabama, backing Trump is an easy campaign strategy. Cavanaugh, GOP lieutenant governor candidate, openly questions runoff opponent Ainsworth's allegiance to the president. Ainsworth has supported Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in the past, and Cavanaugh has been blasting him for it.

"My opponent viciously attacked President Trump, working against his campaign for president, calling him a 'liberal' and a 'con artist,' and saying that 'his ridiculous act has gone far enough and we have to put a stop to it now,'" said Cavanaugh, chairwoman of the Alabama Public Service Commission, referring to Ainsworth's statements he made during Rubio's presidential campaign run two years ago.

Ainsworth, however, said he's always been a supporter of Trump, and that he wrote an media commentary backing the president during his campaign against Clinton. He denies that he called the president a "con artist."

"I've supported him," said Ainsworth. "I think he's doing a good job."

In the attorney general race, Steve Marshall has campaigned on his support of Trump and the president's agenda.

"We've got a proven conservative record throughout the time I've been in public office and I'd be glad for anyone to examine and see where we are," said Marshall, who was appointed attorney general early last year. "Our connection with the Trump administration is that we're partners with them on a variety of issues whether it's opioids, violent crime or various immigration issues we've seen across the country."

Angi Stalnaker, a Republican strategist and a consultant for Marshall's runoff opponent, Troy King, said that Marshall is clinging tight to Trump to mask is own past affiliation with the Democratic Party. Marshall switched from the Democratic Party to Republican in 2011.

"The people of Alabama are not stupid," Stalnaker said. "They know the difference between a real President Trump supporter and an Obama supporter pretending to be a Trump supporter."

She said, "Let's be honest, you can't have supported President Obama's agenda in 2008 and President Trump's agenda now. Short of a remarkable road to Republican Damascus, that's not possible."

'Nothing has changed'

Lathan, meanwhile, said she's not concerned with the Trump focus in the races.

"The candidates have to share their beliefs, policy philosophy and visions to the voters," said Lathan. "Lining up with President Trump's very conservative agenda is a good thing and candidates are not shying away from that."

But the strategy has a bumpy immediate history. Last year, during the Republican contest in the special Senate election, Luther Strange lost to Roy Moore despite running a campaign devoted to Trump.

The president even made a campaign appearance on Strange's behalf. Trump next urged voters to back Moore, who lost to Democrat Doug Jones on Dec. 12.

Nordlinger, at George Washington University, said it's difficult to draw lessons from the Senate election since, late in the campaigning, Moore became embroiled in allegations that he'd sexually pursed teen girls while in his 30s and working as a lawyer in Gadsden.

"Trump's endorsement of Luther Strange was pretty tepid," said Nordlinger. "Before the primary, he said 'Gee, I hope I'm doing the right thing' and that 'Roy Moore is a good guy.' Strange had the problems of having (Senate Majority Leader) Mitch McConnell wrapped around his shoulders."

Said Nordinger: "Nothing has really changed in Alabama."

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