Cancer cases likely to go up by over 12% between ’20 & ’25, says ICMR

In males, all cancers are likely to increase to 7,63,575 in 2025 from 6,01,737 in 2015, while in females, all cancers are likely to rise to 8,06,218 in 2025 from 6,27,202 in 2015.
Image used for representational purpose only.
Image used for representational purpose only.

NEW DELHI: One in nine Indians is likely to have cancer in a lifetime as the disease may jump by 12.8 percent from 2020 to 2025, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

All kinds of cancer cases are expected to increase by 27.7 percent from 2015 to 2025, as per ICMR-National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research (NCDIR), Bengaluru, which maintains the national cancer registry.

While in males, all cancers are likely to increase to 7,63,575 in 2025 from 6,01,737 in 2015, in females, all cancers are likely to increase to 8,06,218 in 2025 from 6,27,202 in 2015.

The highest cases of cancers were reported in the age group of 40-64 years of age. Above 40 years of age, lung cancer was the top most common cancer among males, while breast cancer topped females in all age groups.

However, above 65 years of age, the prostate (12.3%) was the second-leading cause of cancer after lung (13.1%) in males.

Among childhood (0-14 years) cancers, lymphoid leukaemia (cancer of the blood and bone marrow) - was leading cancer among both boys and girls. The brain's nervous system follows this.

The projected leading cancer cases of the lung and breast would be 81,219 and 2,32,832 among males and females, respectively, for the year 2025.

“The cancer incidence is continuing to increase in India. The new estimates will help plan cancer prevention and control activities through the intervention of early detection, risk reduction and management,” said the study, which was published in ICMR’s Indian Journal of Medical Research’s latest November issue.

“In India, the incidence of cancer cases is likely to increase from 1.46 million in 2022 to 1.57 million in 2025,” the study said, adding that the current estimates for cancer in India increased by five per cent (14,61,427 in 2022 compared to 13,92,179 in 2020).

Earlier, ICMR had estimated that there would be 1.39 million new (incident) cancer cases in the year 2020.

The study also said that all kinds of cancer cases are expected to increase by 27.7 percent from 2015 to 2025.

The estimated number of cancer cases and crude incidence rate in India for the year 2022 was 14,61,427 (100.4 per 100,000), with a more significant number of female patients, 7,49,251 (105.4 per 100,000) estimated compared to that in males, 7,12,176 (95.6 per 100,000), the study added.

The highest cancer burden in both genders were organs of the digestive system (2,88,054), breast (2,21,757), genital system (2,18,319), oral cavity and pharynx (1,98,438) and respiratory system (1,43,062).

The cumulative risk of developing cancer in their lifetime between 0 and 74 years was one in every nine persons for all cancers in both sexes, one in 67 for lung cancers in males and one in 29 for breast cancer in females.

The top five leading cancers among males were lung (10.6%), mouth (8.4%), prostate (6.1%), tongue (5.9%) and stomach (4.8%), while for females, it was breast (28.8%), cervix (10.6%), ovary (6.2%), corpus uteri (3.7%) and lung (3.7%).

Liver cancer (3.9%) was among the leading ten cancers in males and not in females, whereas thyroid (3.6%) and gallbladder (2.7%) cancers were in the top ten among females but not in males.

In the adolescent and young adult group (15-39 years), among males, the leading cancer sites are mouth (12.0%), tongue (8.8%), brain (7.0%), myeloid leukaemia (6.5%) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (5.9%).

In contrast, in females, breast cancer continued to be the leading cause (27.3%).

This is followed by thyroid (12.2%), ovary (7.3%), cervix (7.1%) and myeloid leukaemia (3.7%) among females, the study ‘cancer incidence estimates for 2022 and projection for 2025: result from national cancer registry programme, India, said.

In the 40-64 year age group, among males, the leading sites included the lung (11.0%), mouth (10.9%) and tongue (7.3%), while among females, leading cancer again was breast (33.0%). It was followed by the cervix (12.3%) and ovary (6.5%).

The study said that this age group had a high incidence of cases in both males (3,41,230) and females (4,25,918).

It was found that cancer started increasing from 25 years of age in both males and females.

The highest number of cancer cases were in the 60-64 years age group (males: 1,06,296 and females: 1,05,139). Globally, half of the cancer burden was seen in the 65-plus age group, while it is one-third of cancer in India.

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