Friday looks breezy and warm, and severe storms arrive late

ALABAMA IS ON ALERT TONIGHT THROUGH ALL DAY SATURDAY AS A LINE OF SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE STATE. WE’RE GOING TO SEE TWO ROUNDS AGAIN. ONE IS GOING TO BE TONIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 8 A.M. TOMORROW MORNING. THE SECOND ROUND STARTS AROUND NOON AND LASTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO JUST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SO YOU’LL WANT A LOUD WAY TO RECEIVE WATCHES AND WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NOW HERE’S THE LATEST OUTLOOK. I’M SURE YOU’VE SEEN THIS ALL OVER SOCIAL MEDIA. WE’VE BEEN SHOWING THAT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE KEY TAKEAWAY WITH THE OUTLOOKS IS THAT THESE COLORS DOES NOT REPRESENT HOW STRONG THE SEVERE WEATHER IS. IT REPRESENTS WHO HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING IT AND WHO COULD SEE MORE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. SO THIS ENHANCED ORANGE OR NUMEROUS RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUSCALOOSA DEMOPOLIS AND SAY, HAMILTON, YOU GUYS MAY SEE MORE STORMS AND HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING THESE THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THE LEVEL ONE RISK THE GREEN FOR ANNISTON ALEXANDER CITY, MONTGOMERY, YOU GUYS COULD SEE THE SAME TYPE OF THREATS. JUST A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING THEM. NOW, ONCE WE GET INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SATURDAY NIGHT, THE THREAT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EVERYBODY. WE’RE TALKING ABOUT A LEVEL FOUR RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THAT MEANS WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THESE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. NOW, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, HAS SAID MULTIPLE TIMES THIS MORNING THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THEY COULD UPGRADE THIS TO A LEVEL FIVE HIGHER RISK, BUT THAT WOULDN’T BE UNTIL THE DAY OF SO THAT THAT WOULDN’T BE ISSUED UNTIL TOMORROW. I’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER. WHAT’S ALL ON THE TABLE? DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 TO 70MPH. WITHIN SOME OF THESE STRONGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH ALABAMA. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. AND THERE’S ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME PRETTY STRONG TORNADOES. EF TWO OR GREATER. THIS PARTICULAR OUTLOOK SHOWS WHERE WE COULD SEE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING THE STRONGEST TORNADOES. AND YOU CAN SEE THIS HATCHED AREA WHERE YOU HAVE THE BLACK OUTLINE WITH THE THE TRIANGLES. THAT’S WHERE WE’RE EXPECTING F2 OR GREATER TORNADOES. AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE LONG TRACK. SO WHILE TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR, OFTENTIMES CAN BE HIT OR MISS AND SPIN UP AND BRIEF, THESE COULD IMPACT MORE PEOPLE WHEN THEY’RE ON THE GROUND. THIS IS THE FUTURECAST KIND OF TIMING THIS OUT FOR YOU. THIS IS 8 P.M. THE STORMS WAY OUT IN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS GOING TO BE ROUND ONE. IT’S GOING TO COME IN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, STARTING WITH WEST ALABAMA AND PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD. THIS IS 4 A.M. THIS IS WHEN I THINK NORTH ALABAMA GETS THEIR FAIR SHARE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AND THIS IS WHEN I THINK THE FLOODING THREAT BEGINS. AND THEN WE ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THESE ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER SOUTH, MOVING NORTHWARD BY 1 P.M. WHAT YOU’LL NOTICE IS THAT MOST OF THE STORMS AT THIS POINT ARE TO OUR NORTH. BUT LOOK AT THESE WINDS ABOUT 5000FT IN THE AIR. IT’S REFUELING THE ATMOSPHERE. MORE INSTABILITY, MORE MOISTURE COMES IN. SO WHEN THESE STORMS OVER HERE COME IN ROUND NUMBER TWO, THEY START TO DEVELOP AND THEY STRENGTHEN QUICKLY. I THINK WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS. LIKE I SAID BEFORE PRODUCING THOSE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS, TORNADOES, HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70MPH. THIS IS 5 P.M. SATURDAY, COMING IN FROM THE WEST CROSSING THE BIRMINGHAM METRO. THIS IS 8 P.M. EVERYBODY HAS THE CHANCE SEEING THOSE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THAT I JUST MENTIONED. THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS TO. AND BY THE TIME WE GET INTO, SAY, 3 A.M., THAT’S WHEN MOST OF THIS IS OUT IN GEORGIA, THEY GET THEIR FAIR SHARE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ALABAMA IS FINALLY IN THE CLEAR. SO I WANT TO KIND OF FOCUS IN ON THE TIMINGS, THE TIMINGS, WHERE YOU NEED TO BE ON ALERT, LISTENING IN FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS, SPECIFICALLY WATCHING US BECAUSE WE’LL BE LIVE THE MOMENT THINGS START TO GET ROUGH. 11 P.M. TO 7 A.M. FOR THE FIRST ROUND IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. GREEN HAIL, TUSCALOOSA, PICKENS, LAMAR COUNTIES. 12 A.M. TO 8 A.M. FOR JEFFERSON AND SHELBY COUNTY. WALKER COUNTY, COLEMAN AND THE BIRMINGHAM METRO EAST ALABAMA BETWEEN 2 A.M. AND 8 A.M. THIS IS FOR THAT FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. HERE’S THE SECOND ROUND, 11 A.M. TO 7 P.M. FOR WEST ALABAMA, 12 P.M. TO 10 P.M. FOR JEFFERSON, SHELBY, SAINT CLAIR, ETOWAH, BLOUNT COUNTY, DOWN TOWARDS CHILTON, 3 P.M. TO 1 A.M. SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, TALLAPOOSA, COOSA AND CLAY COUNTIES. THAT’S YOU GUYS. IF YOU WANT TO SEE ALL OF THIS INFORMATION AND EVEN AS IT CHANGES, GO TO WVTM 13.COM. WE HAVE EVERYTHING THAT I JUST SAID ON OUR WEBSITE, INCLUDING ALL THE GRAPHICS. AND EVENTUALLY THIS VIDEO. JUST KNOW THAT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THINGS DRY OUT. MOND

WVTM 13 LIVE DOPPLER RADAR | UPLOAD YOUR WEATHER PHOTOS | WAYS TO STAY SAFE | GET WEATHER NOTIFICATIONS | WATCHES VS WARNING | PREPARING YOUR HOME | STORM SHELTERSWVTM 13 meteorologists are tracking a severe weather outbreak in Alabama Friday night through Saturday with the chance of tornadoes, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. ALERT DAYS: Friday, March 14, and Saturday, March 15 - a substantial threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, intense wind gusts and large hailFriday afternoon, it's warm and breezy with high temperatures touching the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few occasional wind gusts will go as high as 25 miles per hour during the warmest part of the day between noon and 5 p.m.ALERT DAY: FRIDAYWe call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.Most of Friday will be sunny, breezy and warm with no major weather problems.A severe weather outbreak will be ongoing Friday afternoon and evening west of Alabama. Those storms will begin to move into the western counties of Alabama late Friday night after 11 p.m. through about 7 a.m. Saturday.TIMING: A severe weather outbreak will be ongoing Friday afternoon and evening west of Alabama. Those storms will begin to move into the western counties of Alabama late Friday evening after 9 p.m. through about 7 a.m. Saturday.Since these storms will be in the area overnight, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio set, tuned and ready to receive a warning as well as the WVTM 13 app on your device to get the very latest alerts. You should not rely on an outdoor siren to wake you up during a warning. IMPACTS: Storms in Alabama late Friday night through 7 a.m. Saturday could bring hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado could develop from any of the more intense storms in this line.Places like Hamilton, Carbon Hill, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Tuscaloosa and Aliceville have a greater chance of severe storms compared to areas further east.ALERT DAY: SATURDAYWe call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.A significant severe weather outbreak is now likely in Alabama on Saturday, March 15. Hazards include tornadoes, strong wind gusts over 70 mph and large hail. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-track (more than 15-20 mile path length). TIMING: There will be a round of storms ongoing Saturday morning in North and Central Alabama. These storms could have an impact on afternoon development, but we do not think they will be enough to stop the threat later in the day.A rough estimate of a timeline would start our "main" event as early as 11 a.m. Saturday and it could last through 1 a.m. Sunday. This will be a long-duration severe weather threat. IMPACTS: A system like this has the potential to be a higher-end severe weather threat in Alabama and Mississippi. Both supercells (individual rotating severe storms) and a squall line are possible in this kind of environment. Forecast guidance suggests the risk strong tornadoes, EF-2 or higher.Be sure you have at least two reliable ways to get warnings and know what your plan will be if a severe storm approaches.Confidence: We have an unusually high confidence in the outcome of Saturday's storm system because of the balanced look it shows in forecast model guidance.The setup has been presented in a very consistent manner showing the right balance of fuel (CAPE, instability) interacting with a strongly "sheared" environment (wind speed increasing and changing direction above the ground).These factors will likely make Saturday's threat a "classic" severe weather setup for the South:(1) A strong jet stream in the right position.(2) A small but strengthening area of low pressure near Interstate 40 from Memphis to Nashville and a very strong "low level jet" (strong burst of wind about a mile above the surface).There are always things that can disrupt systems like this. Right now, we do not see anything that looks like a clear failure point. If it does come in balanced as we expect, this could be a very rough day in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.The "Energy Helicity Index" shows just how balanced this looks. What does it mean?Think of it this way: if storms are happening in an environment like this, they have a high chance of being severe and capable of producing tornadoes.These two rounds of rain and storms also provide some hefty rainfall totals, and it could be enough for some flooding with isolated spots getting more than 2 to 3 inches.AFTER THE STORMSThe weather behind Saturday’s storm system improves greatly by Sunday afternoon. It will be much cooler with a stiff northwest wind. Daytime highs will only reach the middle 60s on Sunday and Monday, and it will get as cold as the 30s with some scattered frost by Monday morning.Our next chance of substantial rain will come Wednesday of next week, but that one does not have a "severe" look to it.For the latest weather coverage for your area, click here. And stay updated with alerts in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. —

WVTM 13 meteorologists are tracking a severe weather outbreak in Alabama Friday night through Saturday with the chance of tornadoes, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

ALERT DAYS: Friday, March 14, and Saturday, March 15 - a substantial threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, intense wind gusts and large hail

Hearst Owned

Friday afternoon, it's warm and breezy with high temperatures touching the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few occasional wind gusts will go as high as 25 miles per hour during the warmest part of the day between noon and 5 p.m.

WVTM 13

ALERT DAY: FRIDAY

We call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.

Most of Friday will be sunny, breezy and warm with no major weather problems.

A severe weather outbreak will be ongoing Friday afternoon and evening west of Alabama. Those storms will begin to move into the western counties of Alabama late Friday night after 11 p.m. through about 7 a.m. Saturday.

Hearst Owned

TIMING: A severe weather outbreak will be ongoing Friday afternoon and evening west of Alabama. Those storms will begin to move into the western counties of Alabama late Friday evening after 9 p.m. through about 7 a.m. Saturday.

Hearst Owned

Since these storms will be in the area overnight, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio set, tuned and ready to receive a warning as well as the WVTM 13 app on your device to get the very latest alerts. You should not rely on an outdoor siren to wake you up during a warning.

IMPACTS: Storms in Alabama late Friday night through 7 a.m. Saturday could bring hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado could develop from any of the more intense storms in this line.

Places like Hamilton, Carbon Hill, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Tuscaloosa and Aliceville have a greater chance of severe storms compared to areas further east.

ALERT DAY: SATURDAY

We call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.

A significant severe weather outbreak is now likely in Alabama on Saturday, March 15. Hazards include tornadoes, strong wind gusts over 70 mph and large hail. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-track (more than 15-20 mile path length).

alabama on alert: strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible in the weather forecast this weekend

Hearst Owned

TIMING: There will be a round of storms ongoing Saturday morning in North and Central Alabama. These storms could have an impact on afternoon development, but we do not think they will be enough to stop the threat later in the day.

A rough estimate of a timeline would start our "main" event as early as 11 a.m. Saturday and it could last through 1 a.m. Sunday. This will be a long-duration severe weather threat.

Hearst Owned

IMPACTS: A system like this has the potential to be a higher-end severe weather threat in Alabama and Mississippi. Both supercells (individual rotating severe storms) and a squall line are possible in this kind of environment. Forecast guidance suggests the risk strong tornadoes, EF-2 or higher.

Hearst Owned

Be sure you have at least two reliable ways to get warnings and know what your plan will be if a severe storm approaches.

Confidence: We have an unusually high confidence in the outcome of Saturday's storm system because of the balanced look it shows in forecast model guidance.

The setup has been presented in a very consistent manner showing the right balance of fuel (CAPE, instability) interacting with a strongly "sheared" environment (wind speed increasing and changing direction above the ground).

These factors will likely make Saturday's threat a "classic" severe weather setup for the South:

(1) A strong jet stream in the right position.

WVTM 13

(2) A small but strengthening area of low pressure near Interstate 40 from Memphis to Nashville and a very strong "low level jet" (strong burst of wind about a mile above the surface).

WVTM 13

There are always things that can disrupt systems like this. Right now, we do not see anything that looks like a clear failure point. If it does come in balanced as we expect, this could be a very rough day in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.

The "Energy Helicity Index" shows just how balanced this looks. What does it mean?

Think of it this way: if storms are happening in an environment like this, they have a high chance of being severe and capable of producing tornadoes.

WVTM 13

These two rounds of rain and storms also provide some hefty rainfall totals, and it could be enough for some flooding with isolated spots getting more than 2 to 3 inches.

WVTM 13

AFTER THE STORMS

The weather behind Saturday’s storm system improves greatly by Sunday afternoon. It will be much cooler with a stiff northwest wind. Daytime highs will only reach the middle 60s on Sunday and Monday, and it will get as cold as the 30s with some scattered frost by Monday morning.

Our next chance of substantial rain will come Wednesday of next week, but that one does not have a "severe" look to it.

For the latest weather coverage for your area, click here. And stay updated with alerts in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.

Friday looks breezy and warm, and severe storms arrive late

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ALERT DAY: FRIDAY

ALERT DAY: SATURDAY

AFTER THE STORMS

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