As cocoa producers and confectionery brands grapple with continued market uncertainty, fresh opportunities are emerging beyond the traditional West African supply base. While the cocoa crisis has dominated headlines, the real story now is how regions like Latin America and Asia are stepping up to help stabilise supply chains and support long-term production.
According to the International Cocoa Organization’s (ICCO) latest market report for March 2025, prices have retreated from their record high of $10.75 per kilogram in January but remain volatile. The ICCO warns that mid-Ivorian crops need more rainfall, cocoa demand is softening, and new US tariffs are creating fresh challenges for the global market.
With these ongoing pressures – including climate change, extreme weather, plant disease, regulatory hurdles, economic strains and smuggling – brands are actively rethinking their sourcing strategies to futureproof supply.
Cocoa supply chains evolve to meet demand
Procurement specialists at GEP warn that the industry stands on the brink of a cocoa crunch, with global production expected to fall short by 1m tonnes in 2025, even as chocolate demand grows by 3%. To close this gap, confectionery brands must explore new production frontiers and reduce their heavy reliance on West Africa, which currently accounts for around 60% of global supply.
Dr Isotilia Costa Melo describes this as the “bittersweet reality” of the cocoa industry, recommending that producers diversify their sourcing regions and build greater resilience into their supply chains.
Rising cocoa stars: Latin America and Asia
Latin America (LATAM) is fast becoming a key growth region for cocoa production. Statista data shows that in 2023, the Americas accounted for over 20% of global cocoa production, making it the second-largest producing region after West Africa. Between 2013 and 2023, production across LATAM and the Caribbean rose by 56%, led by Ecuador, Brazil and Peru.
While Ecuador ranks as the world’s third-largest cocoa producer, the Voice Network notes that its output still falls short of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. However, LATAM’s industrial capabilities present a compelling alternative. With larger plantations, advanced irrigation systems and wider use of disease-resistant hybrid seeds, the region is well-positioned for future growth.
Looking ahead, LATAM’s export value for cocoa and related products reached over $3.48m (€3.1m) in 2022 – up nearly 58% over the past decade – and production is expected to continue rising.
Asia is also gaining ground as a viable sourcing region. The Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) acknowledges that local supply still falls short of demand, but efforts are underway to change that. Through its Asian Cocoa Paper, the CAA calls for greater collaboration between industry players and NGOs to raise productivity, promote sustainable farming practices and encourage more farmers to enter cocoa production.
Indonesia leads Asian production, supported by local crops and a cocoa bean export tax introduced in 2010. Over the past decade, the country’s cocoa production has grown by 60%, from 290,000 metric tonnes to 465,000 metric tonnes. Malaysia, the region’s second-largest producer, has also seen significant growth, with cocoa grindings rising 28% over the last ten years to reach 375,000 metric tonnes.
Building stronger, more resilient supply chains
Beyond shifting their sourcing regions, brands can strengthen supply chains by expanding their supplier networks, balancing relationships with both large and small-scale providers. This approach helps mitigate the risks of localised shortages and provides greater flexibility to meet market demands.
Investing in sustainable farming, improving traceability, and collaborating on industry initiatives are also key strategies for navigating today’s uncertain cocoa market.
Strengthening logistics partnerships and diversifying storage locations can further bolster supply chain resilience. Meanwhile, adopting climate-resilient farming methods and sustainable agroforestry practices will play a vital role in securing cocoa production for the future.
Finally, technology offers new tools to manage volatility. Advanced traceability systems, real-time market intelligence and predictive forecasting can help producers stay ahead of supply chain disruptions, safeguard volumes and build consumer trust in an increasingly challenging marketplace.
